Paul Brunzema

We consider the problem of sequentially optimizing a time-varying objective function using time-varying Bayesian optimization (TVBO). Current approaches to TVBO require prior knowledge of a constant rate of change to cope with stale data arising from time variations. However, in practice, the rate of change is usually unknown. We propose an event-triggered algorithm, ET-GP-UCB, that treats the optimization problem as static until it detects changes in the objective function and then resets the dataset. This allows the algorithm to adapt online to realized temporal changes without the need for exact prior knowledge. The event trigger is based on probabilistic uniform error bounds used in Gaussian process regression. We derive regret bounds for adaptive resets without exact prior knowledge of the temporal changes and show in numerical experiments that ET-GP-UCB outperforms competing GP-UCB algorithms on both synthetic and real-world data. The results demonstrate that ET-GP-UCB is readily applicable without extensive hyperparameter tuning.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely seen as the state-of-the-art surrogate models for Bayesian optimization (BO) due to their ability to model uncertainty and their performance on tasks where correlations are easily captured (such as those defined by Euclidean metrics) and their ability to be efficiently updated online. However, the performance of GPs depends on the choice of kernel, and kernel selection for complex correlation structures is often difficult or must be made bespoke. While Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are a promising direction for higher capacity surrogate models, they have so far seen limited use due to poor performance on some problem types. In this paper, we propose an approach which shows competitive performance on many problem types, including some that BNNs typically struggle with. We build on variational Bayesian last layers (VBLLs), and connect training of these models to exact conditioning in GPs. We exploit this connection to develop an efficient online training algorithm that interleaves conditioning and optimization. Our findings suggest that VBLL networks significantly outperform GPs and other BNN architectures on tasks with complex input correlations, and match the performance of well-tuned GPs on established benchmark tasks.

We introduce BayeSQP, a novel algorithm for general black-box optimization that merges the structure of sequential quadratic programming with concepts from Bayesian optimization. BayeSQP employs second-order Gaussian process surrogates for both the objective and constraints to jointly model the function values, gradients, and Hessian from only zero-order information. At each iteration, a local subproblem is constructed using the GP posterior estimates and solved to obtain a search direction. Crucially, the formulation of the subproblem explicitly incorporates uncertainty in both the function and derivative estimates, resulting in a tractable second-order cone program for high probability improvements under model uncertainty. A subsequent one-dimensional line search via constrained Thompson sampling selects the next evaluation point. Empirical results show that BayeSQP outperforms state-of-the-art methods in specific high-dimensional settings. Our algorithm offers a principled and flexible framework that bridges classical optimization techniques with modern approaches to black-box optimization.